What if China approves fifty new reactors in a single year?
Beijing approving fifty reactors in one year redraws global uranium and copper demand — the cleanest trade is long copper and the miner beta, with China-growth proxies (AUD, China internet) firming. Rhymes with China's 2010-2011 nuclear/infrastructure push that helped drive copper above $10,000/t in 2011. Transmission: uranium suppliers (Kazakhstan/Cameco) and copper exporters (Chile, Australia) are the upstream winners; this is a structural commodity-demand story, not a quick spike.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing approves fifty new reactors in one year, redrawing global uranium and nuclear-equipment demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.