What if China approves fifty new reactors in a single year?
Beijing approving fifty reactors in one year redraws global uranium and copper demand — the cleanest trade is long copper and the miner beta, with China-growth proxies (AUD, China internet) firming. Rhymes with China's 2010-2011 nuclear/infrastructure push that helped drive copper above $10,000/t in 2011. Transmission: uranium suppliers (Kazakhstan/Cameco) and copper exporters (Chile, Australia) are the upstream winners; this is a structural commodity-demand story, not a quick spike.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing approves fifty new reactors in one year, redrawing global uranium and nuclear-equipment demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.4–+2.82% · other way +7.79% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.9–+4.23% · other way -0.71% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.67–+1.51% · other way +1.17% (n=9) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.28–+5.91% · other way -3.56% (n=9) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.14–+0.27% · other way +0.85% (n=12) |
| 6 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.98–+0.55% · other way +1.75% (n=12) |
| 7 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.15–+0.29% · other way -1.88% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.01–+0.29% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on AUD: -1.0% is tiny and the analogues lean on ancient 2008 China-crash windows not comparable today — a 50-reactor uranium/equipment demand surge is structurally bullish AUD; stale sample.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.5% | 77% | 12 | 0.37 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 19 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +1.3% | 61% | 19 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 63% | 19 | 0.21 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +2.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 17 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 56% | 19 | 0.08 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +2.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.1% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 49% | 19 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
China approves ~10/yr already; fifty in one year aggressive but plausible-ish. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.