What if weak margins prompt Chinese refiners to slash crude runs and import quotas?
Weak margins and demand prompt Chinese refiners to slash crude runs and import quotas, removing a large slice of import demand and pressuring Brent and Middle East differentials.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak margins and demand prompt Chinese refiners to slash crude runs and import quotas, removing a large slice of import demand and pressuring Brent and Middle East differentials. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.68–-0.22% · other way -1.24% (n=9) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.53–+0.24% · other way -2.0% (n=9) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.5–+0.0% · other way -2.51% (n=5) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.88–+1.3% · other way -6.12% (n=5) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.46–+0.49% · other way -7.49% (n=9) |
| 6 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.02% · other way -1.68% (n=7) |
| 7 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.36–+0.05% · other way -5.11% (n=9) |
| 8 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.86–+0.86% · other way -5.24% (n=9) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+-0.0% · other way -0.67% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 41% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |