What if a large China stimulus spikes copper, iron ore and aluminium simultaneously?
A large China stimulus simultaneously lifts copper, iron ore, aluminium and steel, spiking the whole base-metals complex and feeding global goods inflation, a china_stimulus broad-demand scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A large China stimulus simultaneously lifts copper, iron ore, aluminium and steel, spiking the whole base-metals complex and feeding global goods inflation, a china_stimulus broad-demand scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -6.01–+2.36% · other way +4.4% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.76–+0.6% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.21–+0.63% · other way +2.41% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.32–+1.15% · other way -1.98% (n=11) |
| 5 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.61% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
| 6 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.77–+0.61% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.27–+0.33% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.13–+0.18% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.07–+6.41% · other way +5.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.56–+1.04% · other way +1.49% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.5–+1.06% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 35 | 0.30 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 35 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.7% | 63% | 32 | 0.19 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 35 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.9% | 51% | 35 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 40% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +1bp | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.2% | 41% | 35 | 0.00 | · |