What if China summer power crunch forces industrial curtailment?
A heatwave-and-drought power crunch in southern and central China forces factory curtailments to protect residential supply, denting industrial output and global supply chains.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A heatwave-and-drought power crunch in southern and central China forces factory curtailments to protect residential supply, denting industrial output and global supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–-0.04% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–+0.25% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.24–+0.4% · other way -1.2% (n=9) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.1% · other way +20.69% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.19–+2.09% · other way +6.51% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.12–+0.1% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.37–+0.69% · other way +1.93% (n=9) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.51–+0.79% · other way -2.9% (n=9) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.56–+1.13% · other way +10.85% (n=9) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.22% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.21–+3.9% · other way +8.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.47–+2.29% · other way +10.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 37 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.0% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.8% | 55% | 29 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -12.6% | 48% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -4.6% | 48% | 37 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 40% | 35 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |