What if Chip-war shock drives 20% SOX drawdown?
A surprise tightening of cross-strait chip controls sends the SOX down ~20% in weeks, dragging risk assets and lifting volatility as supply-chain risk reprices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise tightening of cross-strait chip controls sends the SOX down ~20% in weeks, dragging risk assets and lifting volatility as supply-chain risk reprices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -3.0–-0.41% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.37–-0.74% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.31–-0.71% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.46–-0.76% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.04–+0.23% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.06–-0.55% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.58–+0.7% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.33–+1.73% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.79–+0.2% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.96–-0.39% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -10.2–+1.59% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.42–+0.7% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.14–+1.23% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -5.6% | 72% | 31 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.2% | 68% | 39 | 0.32 | · |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -7.0% | 72% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 25 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |