What if the chipmaker-to-model-lab-to-cloud financing loop unwinds as one link defaults?
The chipmaker-to-model-lab-to-cloud financing loop — where vendors fund customers who buy their products — unwinds as one link defaults, exposing inflated revenue across the chain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The chipmaker-to-model-lab-to-cloud financing loop — where vendors fund customers who buy their products — unwinds as one link defaults, exposing inflated revenue across the chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.85–-0.03% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.19–-0.52% · other way +1.49% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.55–+1.15% · other way +4.21% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.1–-0.13% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.02–+0.28% · other way +1.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.56–+0.43% · other way -0.97% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.01–+0.48% · other way +10.12% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -16.71–+0.46% · other way -17.65% (n=10) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.7–-0.16% · other way -2.02% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.58–-0.22% · other way -1.02% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.1–+0.01% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.83–+2.02% · other way +0.24% (n=10) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.93–+4.99% · other way -5.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.5% · 5d -8.0% | 87% | 19 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -4.0% | 67% | 20 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 21 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.4% | 58% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -4.0% | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.1% | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |