What if civil war in a major oil producer cuts off supply?
Civil war in a major producer removes barrels, so the clean trade is long Brent over WTI (Brent's larger Gulf-exposed war premium) feeding jet/diesel/gasoline and lifting breakevens, while equity vol rises on the second-order growth hit. Direct rhyme is the 2011 Libya civil war, which pulled ~1.6mb/d offline and spiked Brent toward $125. Forward angle: with OPEC+ spare capacity and US shale far larger than in 2011, any spike fades faster unless the disruption hits a core Gulf exporter rather than a marginal one.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Civil war erupts in a major oil-producing nation, removing supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.