What if rising crop-failure frequency makes agricultural insurance unaffordable in exposed regions?
Rising crop-failure frequency makes agricultural insurance unaffordable or unavailable in exposed regions, raising farm credit risk and food-supply fragility, an NGFS physical-risk insurance-protection-gap scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rising crop-failure frequency makes agricultural insurance unaffordable or unavailable in exposed regions, raising farm credit risk and food-supply fragility, an NGFS physical-risk insurance-protection-gap scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.76–+2.39% · other way -3.04% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.91% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.03% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.75–+0.11% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.34–+0.38% · other way +30.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.7–+0.15% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.01–+4.49% · other way -9.24% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.6–+2.44% · other way +8.0% (n=10) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.53–+0.59% · other way +0.96% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.63% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.53–+1.15% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -4.22–+1.35% · other way +17.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.36–+0.8% · other way -2.27% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.4% | 63% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -5.5% | 58% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.7% | 54% | 35 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 35 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +5.3% | 51% | 35 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.4% | 51% | 35 | 0.03 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d -1bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |