What if Climate-tech VC boom funds breakthrough decarbonization?
A renewed surge of venture and growth capital into climate tech accelerates breakthroughs in storage, fuels and carbon removal, boosting clean-energy capex and optimism.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A renewed surge of venture and growth capital into climate tech accelerates breakthroughs in storage, fuels and carbon removal, boosting clean-energy capex and optimism. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.59–+0.58% · other way +3.32% (n=10) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.31–-0.16% · other way +3.98% (n=10) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.75–-0.3% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.84–-0.43% · other way +2.81% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.28–+0.6% · other way -0.71% (n=10) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -16.76–+5.62% · other way -7.36% (n=10) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -8.08–+20.23% · other way +8.91% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.23–+1.14% · other way -4.68% (n=10) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.23–+0.51% · other way -0.41% (n=10) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.13–+2.09% · other way -0.68% (n=10) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.17–+0.44% · other way -0.01% (n=10) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.0–+0.26% · other way -3.2% (n=10) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.25–+8.39% · other way -4.41% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.5% · 5d -9.8% | 92% | 10 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +1.2% | 77% | 13 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +18.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 76% | 12 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.5% | 79% | 12 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.7% | 72% | 12 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.1% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 12 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 71% | 13 | 0.31 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 12 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 13 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -5.8% | 61% | 13 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 13 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 13 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |