What if CNH firms to 6.9 as US-China tension fades?
A durable truce and capital inflows let the PBoC guide USDCNH back toward 6.9, a green light for Asian carry and EM FX as trade risk recedes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable truce and capital inflows let the PBoC guide USDCNH back toward 6.9, a green light for Asian carry and EM FX as trade risk recedes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.43–+1.37% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.18–+2.19% · other way +0.84% (n=10) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.06–+1.35% · other way +1.18% (n=10) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.08–+1.32% · other way -0.7% (n=10) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.14–+0.71% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.55–+0.92% · other way -2.22% (n=4) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.06–+0.38% · other way +0.25% (n=10) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -7.74–+2.53% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.76–+1.07% · other way -1.85% (n=9) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.13–+0.94% · other way +7.73% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.39–+2.34% · other way +9.4% (n=6) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.68–+2.53% · other way -3.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.37–+0.66% · other way -1.98% (n=10) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -0.5% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.1% | 73% | 27 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.4% | 69% | 31 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 68% | 30 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |