What if new rules retire the entire US coal fleet at once?
Simultaneous US coal-fleet retirement tightens dispatchable supply and lifts power prices/inflation; like 505, the rates/inflation legs fit but the european_energy/EUR mapping is wrong for a US emissions rule. Rhymes with UK's coal phase-out and 2022 US coal-to-gas switching that firmed Henry Hub. Transmission: shifts marginal generation to gas, bidding up Henry Hub and PJM capacity. Forward angle: retiring baseload as AI load surges makes gas the structural swing fuel — the cleaner trade is long US natgas/IPPs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. New emissions rules force simultaneous retirement of the remaining US coal fleet, tightening dispatchable supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.69–+5.23% · other way +6.98% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -6.37–+15.22% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.4–+9.31% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.17–+0.65% · other way +2.54% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–+0.16% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 6 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 77% | 14 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.4% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.17 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.13 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +8bp | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 13 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.9% | 52% | 13 | 0.02 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +1.9% | 38% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Forced simultaneous coal-fleet retirement unlikely amid pro-fossil policy reversal mid-2026. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.