What if new rules retire the entire US coal fleet at once?
Simultaneous US coal-fleet retirement tightens dispatchable supply and lifts power prices/inflation; like 505, the rates/inflation legs fit but the european_energy/EUR mapping is wrong for a US emissions rule. Rhymes with UK's coal phase-out and 2022 US coal-to-gas switching that firmed Henry Hub. Transmission: shifts marginal generation to gas, bidding up Henry Hub and PJM capacity. Forward angle: retiring baseload as AI load surges makes gas the structural swing fuel — the cleaner trade is long US natgas/IPPs.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. New emissions rules force simultaneous retirement of the remaining US coal fleet, tightening dispatchable supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.