What if a forced coal phase-out concentrates credit losses in coal-dependent regions?
A forced coal phase-out concentrates economic and credit losses in coal-dependent regions and their lenders, with stranded mines, plants and local fiscal bases.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A forced coal phase-out concentrates economic and credit losses in coal-dependent regions and their lenders, with stranded mines, plants and local fiscal bases. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.19–+0.33% · other way -1.41% (n=11) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.03% · other way -0.28% (n=11) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.22–+1.64% · other way -2.11% (n=11) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.92–+0.11% · other way +0.37% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.03% · other way +16.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.0–+5.24% · other way -9.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.39% · other way -0.18% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.13–+1.84% · other way +3.78% (n=9) |
| 9 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.32–+0.23% · other way +2.29% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–-0.05% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.56–+1.95% · other way +0.34% (n=9) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.44% · other way +0.52% (n=11) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.74% · other way +1.97% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.44–+2.65% · other way +21.6% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +0bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 42% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |