What if Coal renaissance: energy security trumps climate goals?
Energy-security fears and cheap fuel drive a global coal-burn rebound, lifting thermal-coal demand and emissions while undercutting near-term decarbonization targets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Energy-security fears and cheap fuel drive a global coal-burn rebound, lifting thermal-coal demand and emissions while undercutting near-term decarbonization targets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Oil demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.04–+1.44% · other way -4.36% (n=4) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.4–+2.07% · other way -4.74% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.12–+0.61% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.1–+1.06% · other way -4.1% (n=4) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.31–+8.36% · other way +0.33% (n=4) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.01–+0.33% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.85–+5.93% · other way +2.33% (n=4) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.59–+1.58% · other way +0.03% (n=4) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.86–+4.25% · other way -1.62% (n=4) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.03–+5.35% · other way -1.12% (n=4) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.33% · other way -1.15% (n=6) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.27–+9.88% · other way +8.0% (n=11) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.06–+9.38% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +0.3% | 69% | 18 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -3.6% | 68% | 22 | 0.27 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 23 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 22 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +10.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 12 | 0.15 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +1.5% | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 23 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 23 | 0.10 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 52% | 20 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 39% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 48% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |