What if new Gulf LNG terminals become uninsurable and stranded?
Stranded Gulf LNG terminals is a project-finance/insurability event: rising SLR and storm risk make new export capacity uninsurable, hitting sponsor credit and the US LNG-export growth path — not grains. Rhymes with the financing/insurance overhang that has dogged Gulf LNG buildouts and CAT-exposed energy infrastructure. Transmission runs through LNG developer credit, long-dated US gas export volumes (and thus Henry Hub-TTF spread), not the modeled wheat/corn.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerating sea-level projections and storms render new Gulf LNG export terminals uninsurable and financially stranded. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.