What if a major upward revision to hurricane cat models forces insurers to raise coastal premiums overnight?
A major upward revision to hurricane catastrophe models repriced overnight forces insurers to raise coastal premiums or exit, crystallizing protection-gap and property-value losses, an IAIS model-risk theme.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major upward revision to hurricane catastrophe models repriced overnight forces insurers to raise coastal premiums or exit, crystallizing protection-gap and property-value losses, an IAIS model-risk theme. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.