What if Coastal-property repricing: Florida insurance unaffordable?
Surging premiums and carrier withdrawals make Florida coastal-property insurance unaffordable, depressing coastal home values and tightening regional mortgage and credit conditions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Surging premiums and carrier withdrawals make Florida coastal-property insurance unaffordable, depressing coastal home values and tightening regional mortgage and credit conditions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.19–+6.58% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.44–+1.43% · other way -3.11% (n=11) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.74–+1.83% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.15–+6.84% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.29–+1.41% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.49–+0.31% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.1% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.69–+12.58% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 10 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.82–+0.88% · other way -1.03% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.08–+4.02% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.46% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.62–+0.31% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 13 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 40% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +0.4% | 43% | 7 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.8% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.7% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |