What if Cold winter plus LNG pull drives HH summer strip above $5?
A cold-winter inventory hole combined with record LNG feedgas demand lifts the next-summer Henry Hub strip above $5/MMBtu, signaling a structurally tighter US gas market than the prior decade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cold-winter inventory hole combined with record LNG feedgas demand lifts the next-summer Henry Hub strip above $5/MMBtu, signaling a structurally tighter US gas market than the prior decade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -10.19–+1.86% · other way +10.12% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.12–+6.18% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.94–+1.55% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.56–+0.77% · other way +5.3% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–+0.25% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.3–+0.3% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.03% · other way +9.86% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.3–+0.59% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.26–+5.96% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.04–+3.58% · other way +6.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -4.1% | 71% | 31 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -5.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 31 | 0.21 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +5.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 20 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 31 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.9% | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +4bp | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |