What if Collapsing JKM-HH arb idles US LNG, cargoes cancelled?
A global glut collapses the JKM and TTF premium over Henry Hub plus shipping, making US cargoes uneconomic; offtakers cancel liftings and feedgas demand drops, backing gas into storage.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A global glut collapses the JKM and TTF premium over Henry Hub plus shipping, making US cargoes uneconomic; offtakers cancel liftings and feedgas demand drops, backing gas into storage. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.69–+0.72% · other way +3.59% (n=10) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.69–+0.32% · other way -1.41% (n=10) |
| 3 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -6.6–+2.05% · other way +22.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -7.4–+1.73% · other way +28.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.1% | 66% | 32 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.5% | 69% | 21 | 0.31 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.12 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.8% | 45% | 35 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 43% | 30 | 0.00 | · |