What if Comprehensive sanctions relief reopens Russia to trade?
A durable peace brings broad sanctions rollback, reintegrating Russian energy, metals, and grain into global markets and easing multiple commodity risk premia at once.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable peace brings broad sanctions rollback, reintegrating Russian energy, metals, and grain into global markets and easing multiple commodity risk premia at once. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.73–+0.19% · other way -1.22% (n=9) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.93–+0.03% · other way -2.12% (n=9) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.41–-0.08% · other way -1.63% (n=9) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.19–+3.32% · other way +0.1% (n=9) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.05–-0.13% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.06–+0.48% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.17–+3.27% · other way -2.21% (n=9) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.13–+6.01% · other way +2.69% (n=9) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.92–+3.05% · other way +1.73% (n=8) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.07–+0.93% · other way -0.05% (n=10) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.04–+0.51% · other way +0.85% (n=9) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.11–+0.77% · other way +2.63% (n=9) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.21–+6.3% · other way +4.91% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 13 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 72% | 13 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 70% | 9 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 9 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -6.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -10.8% | 70% | 4 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 10 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 13 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 9 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +2.1% | 58% | 5 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |