What if Congo-Rwanda clashes risk a regional war?
Direct DRC-Rwanda military exchanges and Burundian involvement threaten a wider Great Lakes war, lifting Central African geopolitical and mineral-supply risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Direct DRC-Rwanda military exchanges and Burundian involvement threaten a wider Great Lakes war, lifting Central African geopolitical and mineral-supply risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.1% hist +0.53–+11.46% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.6% hist -2.24–-0.85% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.25–-0.05% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.7–-0.44% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.17–-0.45% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.95–+3.18% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.55–+2.13% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 8 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.05–+1.7% · other way -4.66% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.15–+0.63% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 11 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.32–+0.78% · other way +0.22% (n=11) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.77–-0.27% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.6–+1.43% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.53–+1.12% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.7% · 5d +2.4% | 69% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.9% · 5d +3.4% | 70% | 15 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 71% | 29 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 31 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.0% | 61% | 23 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |