What if COP collapse: climate diplomacy stalls, fossils entrenched?
A failed COP cycle with major-emitter defections kills near-term decarbonization momentum, lifting fossil-demand expectations and raising long-run physical-climate risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed COP cycle with major-emitter defections kills near-term decarbonization momentum, lifting fossil-demand expectations and raising long-run physical-climate risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.24–+0.67% · other way -8.46% (n=6) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.67–+0.62% · other way -9.16% (n=6) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.57–+0.75% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.93–+0.83% · other way -10.46% (n=6) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.16–+4.12% · other way +5.66% (n=3) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.21% · other way -1.27% (n=8) |
| 7 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.66–+2.5% · other way +59.48% (n=6) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.07–+3.5% · other way +7.14% (n=6) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.54–+0.52% · other way -2.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.07–+1.49% · other way +28.77% (n=6) |
| 12 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.53–+0.4% · other way -2.59% (n=6) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.91–+4.06% · other way +6.59% (n=3) |
| 14 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.49–+1.95% · other way -11.98% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.14 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.4% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.6% | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |