What if a global bleaching event collapses the world's coral reefs?
Reef collapse hits fisheries/protein and reinsurance-backed coastal tourism, not row-crop grains — the wheat/corn mapping is a category error. The tradable read is regional reinsurance pricing and seafood/protein inflation in SE Asia/Pacific. Rhymes with the 2016 Great Barrier Reef mass-bleaching shock to Queensland tourism; effect is localized and chronic, so fade any implied global food-CPI move and price it through tourism-exposed names and CAT covers.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A fourth global bleaching event kills most tropical reefs, gutting fisheries and reinsurance-backed coastal tourism economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.