What if Corn jumps as Ukraine planted area collapses?
Mobilization, mines, and fuel shortages cut Ukrainian corn acreage sharply, tightening the global feed-grain balance and lifting Chicago corn and Matif.
12%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 12%· 90% range 4–20%· 40 analogues · measured class inflation 100% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — inflation ≈5.6856/yr → 100% in 18 mo100%
Analyst prior · editorial share 12% of the class12%
Pooled · weight 87%13%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)13%
Published12%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Mobilization, mines, and fuel shortages cut Ukrainian corn acreage sharply, tightening the global feed-grain balance and lifting Chicago corn and Matif. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Wheat ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
CornCORNon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.6%
hist -1.26–+1.05% · other way +0.75% (n=9)
2
WheatWHEATon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.2%
hist -2.31–+1.02% · other way -5.55% (n=9)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Iranian rial slides to a new record low 2025-12↗H5N1 bird flu record US egg prices 2025-04↗Nasdaq Composite first close above 20000 2024-12↗Henry Hub natural gas falls to an all-time inflation-adjusted low on record output 2024-11↗Homebuilders rally as cool June CPI fuels rate-cut bets 2024-07↗USD/JPY hits a 38-year high before a CPI-driven intervention 2024-07↗Hot January CPI delays Fed-cut hopes 2024-02↗Cool October 2022 CPI sparks huge bond-and-bank rally 2022-11↗Hot September 2022 CPI sends yields and curve to cycle extremes 2022-10↗August 2022 hot CPI 2022-09↗Powell's hawkish 'pain' speech at Jackson Hole 2022-08↗Inflation Reduction Act signed into law 2022-08↗June 2022 CPI prints 9.1% 2022-07↗May 2022 US CPI sends S&P into a bear market 2022-06↗Sri Lanka suspends external debt payments 2022-04↗Bank of England's first post-pandemic rate hike 2021-12↗Fed retires 'transitory' 2021-11↗Turkish lira record low on rate cuts 2021-11↗October 2021 US CPI shock 2021-11↗European gas crisis intraday record spike 2021-10↗Federal Reserve adopts average inflation targeting at Jackson Hole 2020-08↗February 2018 hot wage print triggers rate scare 2018-02↗Bank of Japan introduces Yield Curve Control 2016-09↗India RBI flexible inflation-targeting framework 2015-02↗Bank of Japan Kuroda QQE 'bazooka' 2013-04↗Vietnam dong 9.3% devaluation 2011-02↗Crude oil all-time high 2008-07↗ECB's ill-timed pre-crisis rate hike 2008-07↗Bank of England granted operational independence 1997-05↗Brazil Plano Real launches the real 1994-07↗Black Wednesday 1992-09↗Argentina Convertibility Plan 1991-04↗Peru Fujishock stabilization 1990-08↗1990-91 recession onset 1990-07↗Brazil Collor Plan asset freeze 1990-03↗Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopts world's first explicit inflation target 1990-03↗Argentina hyperinflation peak / Alfonsin early handover 1989-07↗Brazil Cruzado Plan launched 1986-02↗Argentina Austral Plan launched 1985-06↗Silver Thursday 1980-03↗