What if Mediator fatigue stalls the Ukraine peace process?
Stalled talks and shifting US priorities leave the conflict in a grinding stalemate, keeping the European war-risk premium elevated without a clear catalyst either way.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Stalled talks and shifting US priorities leave the conflict in a grinding stalemate, keeping the European war-risk premium elevated without a clear catalyst either way. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.9% hist +0.6–+3.65% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.31–-0.25% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.71–-0.37% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.72–-0.22% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.44–+1.83% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.61–+4.05% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 7 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.75–+3.51% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.64–-0.11% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.53–+2.11% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.17–+0.34% · other way -3.5% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.71–+0.79% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.11–+0.44% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.89–+0.98% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.9% | 74% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +4.1% | 71% | 18 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.9% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |