What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
A comprehensive, internationally guaranteed settlement ends the war, removing the structural European risk premium and unleashing a broad reconstruction and risk-on cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A comprehensive, internationally guaranteed settlement ends the war, removing the structural European risk premium and unleashing a broad reconstruction and risk-on cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▼ · European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -9.3% hist -6.13–-3.34% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +4.1% hist +0.61–+1.93% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.8% hist +0.91–+1.54% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.2% hist +0.76–+1.44% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.3% hist +0.23–+2.71% · other way +1.26% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.9% hist -2.25–+6.06% · other way -3.68% (n=7) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.08–+1.0% · other way -2.68% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.56–+2.95% · other way -1.99% (n=8) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.24–+0.97% · other way +1.07% (n=10) |
| 11 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.95–+0.56% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -1.44–+1.05% · other way -1.96% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.63–+0.04% · other way +1.68% (n=11) |
| 14 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.83–+0.29% · other way +4.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 77% | 29 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.6% | 74% | 32 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.4% | 73% | 29 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.1% · 5d +2.1% | 71% | 15 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 34 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 26 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 26 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.5% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 26 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |