What if Crack collapse squeezes Valero and Marathon refining margins?
A global refining-capacity glut compresses gasoline and diesel cracks, squeezing merchant refiners Valero and Marathon and pressuring their equities as mid-cycle margins reset structurally lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A global refining-capacity glut compresses gasoline and diesel cracks, squeezing merchant refiners Valero and Marathon and pressuring their equities as mid-cycle margins reset structurally lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Gasoline ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.26–+6.15% · other way +1.03% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.3–+2.53% · other way +9.85% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.54–+0.98% · other way +6.17% (n=7) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.32% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.42–+1.68% · other way +6.46% (n=7) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.2–+0.21% · other way -0.41% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.20 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.20 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 25 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.9% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 11 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 23 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.1% | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 37% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 30 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | · |