What if Cross-strait CBMs cut accidental-clash risk to a multi-year low?
Standing confidence-building measures (incident hotlines, notification regimes) become routine, structurally lowering Strait tail-risk; Taiwan assets rerate and the regional haven bid in gold and JPY softens.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Standing confidence-building measures (incident hotlines, notification regimes) become routine, structurally lowering Strait tail-risk; Taiwan assets rerate and the regional haven bid in gold and JPY softens. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -7.3% hist -4.4–-2.6% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.9% hist +1.07–+1.83% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.54–+0.92% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.26–+1.83% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.13–+1.89% · other way -2.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.06–+2.31% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.54–+3.23% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -6.93–+21.22% · other way +14.43% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.05–+1.7% · other way -4.5% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.49–+0.86% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.72–-0.16% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.25–+0.86% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.02–+1.59% · other way +2.04% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.0% | 70% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +0bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.0% · 5d +1.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |