What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?
A Trump-Xi summit restores crisis-communication channels and dials back Taiwan rhetoric; Asia risk premia compress, TWD and KOSPI rally, VIX and gold ease as tail-risk recedes.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A Trump-Xi summit restores crisis-communication channels and dials back Taiwan rhetoric; Asia risk premia compress, TWD and KOSPI rally, VIX and gold ease as tail-risk recedes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.