What if Crypto-mining bust frees grid capacity and reprices power names?
A crypto downturn idles mining load, freeing grid capacity for datacenters but pressuring merchant-power names that had relied on miner demand, reshaping regional power economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A crypto downturn idles mining load, freeing grid capacity for datacenters but pressuring merchant-power names that had relied on miner demand, reshaping regional power economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.1–+1.35% · other way +10.51% (n=11) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% hist -7.82–+2.44% · other way +4.35% (n=8) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.8–+3.91% · other way -6.97% (n=8) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -6.93–+0.71% · other way +5.24% (n=8) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.74–+2.26% · other way +22.05% (n=7) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.99–+0.56% · other way +8.44% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–-0.07% · other way +1.73% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.2–+0.3% · other way +2.31% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -5.2% | 73% | 21 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -3bp | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -10.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 18 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -7.8% | 53% | 19 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.0% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.7% | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | · |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 45% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.5% | 36% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 31 | 0.00 | · |