What if Crypto-mining bust frees up grid capacity for AI datacenters?
A crypto downturn idles mining load, freeing cheap power and interconnection capacity that AI datacenters absorb, smoothing the transition without new build in some regions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A crypto downturn idles mining load, freeing cheap power and interconnection capacity that AI datacenters absorb, smoothing the transition without new build in some regions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.48–+1.44% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -4.95–+7.65% · other way -3.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.34–+1.25% · other way +2.51% (n=8) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.4–+6.68% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -15.57–+18.19% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.68–+3.49% · other way -0.84% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.53% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.01–+0.23% · other way +0.98% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 73% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -11.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 12 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 16 | 0.25 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 20 | 0.24 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.2% · 5d +4.6% | 58% | 9 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.6% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.7% | 56% | 19 | 0.09 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +0.9% | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.9% | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 53% | 20 | 0.06 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 38% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |