What if a quantum computer cracks RSA-2048 encryption?
A working RSA-2048-breaking quantum machine is a crypto-confidence kill-shot before it touches TradFi: short ETH/SOL and levered proxies (MSTR, COIN) hardest, since their security model is the thing impugned, while Bitcoin's UTXO set is partially defendable via address hygiene. The structural analogue is Mt. Gox (Feb-2014) — a trust-collapse that halved confidence overnight regardless of fundamentals. Forward angle: unlike Gox, post-quantum migration is a known roadmap, so the panic is front-loaded and a quantum-resistant-chain rotation, not a uniform crypto bid-down, is the real second move.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A lab demonstrates a quantum computer breaking RSA-2048, shattering financial encryption and triggering emergency crypto-migration panic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Crypto confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -7.5% hist -6.16–-1.23% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -6.7% hist -18.77–+5.64% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.2% hist -17.68–+4.38% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.2% hist -14.61–+4.59% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -3.71–-0.86% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.03% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's BTC short: only six analogues, all 2023 bank-run and FTX windows where BTC rallied on fiat-distrust; an RSA-breaking quantum machine destroys crypto's security premise, the wrong regime entirely.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -8.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -15.8% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -11.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.9% | 66% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -18bp · 5d -9bp | 64% | 31 | 0.25 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 31 | 0.11 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 51% | 28 | 0.02 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.3% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
RSA-2048 break not imminent; hardware far short; novel one-off, low even over decade. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.