What if hyperscalers swap merchant GPUs for in-house chips at scale?
Two hyperscalers shifting to in-house ASICs reprices merchant-accelerator TAM: Nvidia falls hardest, but Broadcom is the offsetting winner as the custom-silicon partner (note its smaller drawdown). Rhymes with Apple dropping Intel for in-house M-series (2020) — a multi-year, telegraphed substitution. Forward angle: this is a 1-3yr structural de-rating of Nvidia's TAM share, not a crash; the trade is long Broadcom/Marvell custom-silicon against short Nvidia premium.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Two hyperscalers announce in-house ASICs replace merchant GPUs at scale, repricing accelerator TAM. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.