What if hyperscaler in-house chips erode merchant GPU demand faster than expected?
Hyperscaler in-house accelerators erode merchant-GPU demand faster than expected, repricing the dominant AI-chip franchise and its rich valuation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Hyperscaler in-house accelerators erode merchant-GPU demand faster than expected, repricing the dominant AI-chip franchise and its rich valuation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.08–-0.44% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.57–-0.25% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.36–+2.41% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.71–-0.02% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.41–+0.52% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.09–+0.44% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–-0.15% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.88–+1.06% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -12.19–+0.98% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.47–+1.58% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.88–+0.8% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.12% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.48–+1.74% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.5% · 5d -6.2% | 79% | 28 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -5.9% | 69% | 33 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 28 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.3% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.8% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d +4.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |