What if chronic water scarcity constrains data-center cooling in the US Southwest?
Chronic water scarcity constrains data-center cooling in the US Southwest and Gulf, the climate-physical bottleneck for AI-compute buildout NGFS-style scenarios increasingly recognize.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Chronic water scarcity constrains data-center cooling in the US Southwest and Gulf, the climate-physical bottleneck for AI-compute buildout NGFS-style scenarios increasingly recognize. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.54–+0.3% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.09–+0.45% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.2% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.64–-0.17% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.44–+0.68% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.17–+0.68% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.49–+3.76% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 8 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.08–+1.02% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–-0.12% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.35–+2.72% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.55–+0.82% · other way -3.18% (n=12) |
| 12 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.0–+1.28% · other way -2.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.2–+0.72% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 14 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -2.26–+5.92% · other way -6.58% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.1% | 71% | 21 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 16 | 0.32 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.0% · 5d +2.0% | 68% | 22 | 0.31 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 21 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 58% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.13 | · |
| NG NG | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d 0bp | 56% | 28 | 0.12 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 21 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 21 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |