What if Datacenter overbuild leaves stranded power contracts and gas turbines?
If AI demand undershoots after a turbine and PPA buying spree, the sector is left with stranded firm-power contracts and idle gas capacity, pressuring IPP and equipment economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. If AI demand undershoots after a turbine and PPA buying spree, the sector is left with stranded firm-power contracts and idle gas capacity, pressuring IPP and equipment economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.52–+1.38% · other way +3.43% (n=7) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.02–+0.86% · other way +3.34% (n=7) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.04–+1.46% · other way +17.02% (n=8) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.24–+0.26% · other way +4.19% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.42% · other way -0.73% (n=9) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.28–+3.26% · other way +0.39% (n=9) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.56–+0.2% · other way +4.07% (n=7) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.59% · other way -0.79% (n=8) |
| 10 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.53–+0.8% · other way +8.24% (n=8) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–+0.05% · other way -0.23% (n=8) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -3.04–+0.63% · other way +3.1% (n=8) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.44–+0.12% · other way -3.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.02–+4.54% · other way +19.12% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.9% | 72% | 23 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.6% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -9.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.1% | 46% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |