What if DAX re-rates higher on a European peace dividend?
A credible settlement and cheaper gas revive German industrial competitiveness, lifting the DAX as energy-cost and war-risk discounts unwind.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A credible settlement and cheaper gas revive German industrial competitiveness, lifting the DAX as energy-cost and war-risk discounts unwind. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.1% hist -2.58–-1.05% · other way -4.81% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.66–+1.12% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.31–+0.78% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.45–+6.4% · other way +2.69% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.03–+1.62% · other way +1.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.26–+0.59% · other way -4.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.05–+1.23% · other way -1.84% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.19–+0.56% · other way +2.73% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+0.34% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.0–+1.78% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–-0.14% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.27–+0.18% · other way +1.71% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.89–+0.55% · other way -1.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.2% · 5d +2.9% | 76% | 24 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +1.3% | 72% | 36 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 74% | 31 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 26 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |