What if DDR5/conventional DRAM crunch as HBM cannibalizes capacity?
Memory makers divert wafers to lucrative HBM, starving conventional DRAM supply and spiking prices for PCs, phones and servers in an unusual shortage.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Memory makers divert wafers to lucrative HBM, starving conventional DRAM supply and spiking prices for PCs, phones and servers in an unusual shortage. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.