What if De-globalization inflation premium: fractured supply chains lift CPI?
Geopolitical fragmentation and duplicated supply chains add a persistent inflation premium and lower trend growth, a mildly stagflationary regime shift.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Geopolitical fragmentation and duplicated supply chains add a persistent inflation premium and lower trend growth, a mildly stagflationary regime shift. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.37–-0.52% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.02–+0.31% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.88–-0.18% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.62–-0.35% · other way +2.18% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.17% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.74–+2.16% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.23–+0.52% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.09–-0.04% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.44–+2.8% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.95–+1.13% · other way +4.47% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–+0.41% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.97–+0.43% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.66–+0.33% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 33 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.5% | 68% | 30 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 68% | 30 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -6.6% | 64% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -5.0% | 63% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 31 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |