What if DeepSeek-style efficiency shock dents the capex narrative?
A surprise low-cost frontier model trained on far less compute reignites fears that AI capex is overbuilt, triggering a sharp one-day de-rating of the accelerator chain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise low-cost frontier model trained on far less compute reignites fears that AI capex is overbuilt, triggering a sharp one-day de-rating of the accelerator chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.05–+0.69% |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.22–+-0.0% |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.62–-0.1% |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.31–+0.81% |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.0–+10.69% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -19.93–-1.35% |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.18% |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.86–+0.42% |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.09–+1.77% |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.29–+0.44% |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+0.43% |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.95–+1.35% |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.45% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.9% · 5d -7.0% | 95% | 19 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 25 | 0.27 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 24 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 24 | 0.25 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 25 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.8% | 60% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.7% | 60% | 25 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 24 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.6% · 5d +1.4% | 55% | 24 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 53% | 25 | 0.04 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |