What if Defense-AI compute orders add a durable accelerator demand stream?
Militaries scaling AI for autonomy and intelligence place steady accelerator and edge-compute orders, adding a counter-cyclical demand stream to the chip cycle.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Militaries scaling AI for autonomy and intelligence place steady accelerator and edge-compute orders, adding a counter-cyclical demand stream to the chip cycle. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.63–+0.84% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.36–+1.62% · other way -4.09% (n=10) |
| 3 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.29–+0.32% · other way +6.62% (n=12) |
| 4 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.45–+0.64% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
| 5 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.79–+5.81% · other way +2.5% (n=10) |
| 6 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.24–+0.33% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -10.56–+1.91% · other way -13.55% (n=7) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.04–+0.39% · other way -0.06% (n=10) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.54–+9.37% · other way +6.41% (n=10) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.19% · other way -11.52% (n=10) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.19% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.64–+0.35% · other way +3.78% (n=12) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.32–+1.01% · other way +0.46% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +0.4% | 72% | 31 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -6.9% | 74% | 27 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +5bp | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 33 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 31 | 0.15 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |