What if Disorderly transition: late carbon shock spikes inflation?
Policy delay followed by an abrupt carbon-pricing snap forces a chaotic energy repricing, simultaneously hiking inflation expectations and denting growth in a stagflationary mix.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Policy delay followed by an abrupt carbon-pricing snap forces a chaotic energy repricing, simultaneously hiking inflation expectations and denting growth in a stagflationary mix. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.07–-0.14% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.55–+0.02% · other way +5.83% (n=12) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.66–-0.12% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–-0.29% · other way +3.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -6.88–+1.64% · other way -12.97% (n=12) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.77–+0.2% · other way -2.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–+0.24% · other way -1.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.66–-0.08% · other way -4.59% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.35–+0.23% · other way -3.74% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.22–+2.05% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.81–+0.97% · other way -0.83% (n=12) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.14–+0.37% · other way +13.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.25–+0.33% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -8.4% | 74% | 17 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -4.3% | 67% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.7% | 65% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 27 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -8.5% · 5d -8.5% | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -4.6% | 62% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.0% | 61% | 28 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 27 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d +1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.4% | 54% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |