What if Dispatchable-capacity scarcity revives coal-plant life-extensions?
Reliability fears and load growth force operators to delay coal retirements and extend plant lives to keep firm capacity online, a bearish climate signal but a grid-reliability stopgap.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Reliability fears and load growth force operators to delay coal retirements and extend plant lives to keep firm capacity online, a bearish climate signal but a grid-reliability stopgap. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.44–+1.39% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.79–+2.01% · other way +3.45% (n=12) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.03–+0.27% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.87–+7.17% · other way +8.1% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.13–+5.58% · other way +10.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -3.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +4.7% | 63% | 27 | 0.21 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 26 | 0.12 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 24 | 0.06 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 53% | 26 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 50% | 37 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 39% | 17 | 0.00 | · |