What if a memory-chip glut sends DRAM prices crashing 50 percent?
A 50% DRAM/NAND spot crash from oversupply guts Micron/SK Hynix margins — a memory-specific glut (semiconductor_risk negative), which is why fab/litho names hold or firm rather than fall. Rhymes with the 2018–19 and 2022 memory down-cycles where commodity-memory pricing collapsed while logic held up better. Forward angle: HBM for AI is the swing — if the glut is commodity DDR while HBM stays tight, Micron's blended hit is smaller than the spot print implies; watch the mix, not the headline.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Memory makers flood the market, sending DRAM and NAND spot prices down 50% and gutting Micron and SK Hynix margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.