What if Drone swarm halts a Saudi gas-processing train?
A coordinated drone strike knocks out a major Saudi gas-processing train, curbing associated-gas and NGL output and tightening regional power and petrochemical feedstock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated drone strike knocks out a major Saudi gas-processing train, curbing associated-gas and NGL output and tightening regional power and petrochemical feedstock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.6% hist +0.69–+6.93% · other way -9.37% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.79–-0.76% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.45–+1.67% · other way +0.07% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.24–-0.57% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -0.62–+1.59% · other way +3.54% (n=11) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.06–-0.49% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.9–+2.58% · other way +14.41% (n=11) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.38–+6.93% · other way -2.03% (n=9) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.89–-0.43% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 10 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.21–+1.49% · other way +1.28% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.87–+0.51% · other way +9.6% (n=9) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.96–+0.74% · other way +5.44% (n=9) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.97–+6.3% · other way +6.82% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +1.9% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 20 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +1.0% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |