What if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?
Banning ASML servicing of installed DUV in China degrades existing fab uptime over time - a slower bleed than a tool ban - so ASML loses high-margin China service revenue while TSMC is a relative winner; the -3.6% TSMC print likely overshoots versus ASML's own hit. Rhymes with the 2024 Dutch license tightening and ASML's China-revenue guide-down. China is ASML's swing service market; the forward angle is service denial degrades yield gradually, making it a grind rather than the sharp shock the cascade implies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Netherlands bans servicing of installed DUV machines in China, degrading existing Chinese fab uptime. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.6% hist -2.99–-0.87% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.4% hist -5.83–-0.03% · other way +3.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.48–-0.91% · other way +1.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.6–-0.34% · other way -1.92% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.18–-0.34% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.79–+0.42% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.27–-0.57% · other way +5.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.84–+0.42% · other way -2.96% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.19–+0.18% · other way -1.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.2–-0.12% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.33–-0.34% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -4.48–+0.86% · other way -3.99% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.01–-0.34% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.09–+0.83% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on AVGO: the +6% is AI-capex-driven, not an ASML-servicing channel — degrading Chinese fab uptime is bearish for the chip complex; Broadcom's realized move reflects accelerator demand elsewhere.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.2% | 75% | 36 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -12.6% | 69% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.6% | 61% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -4.2% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Dutch servicing halt threatened; degrading installed base self-damaging to ASML, politically resisted. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.