What if Edge inference cannibalizes datacenter AI compute demand?
Capable on-device models shift a meaningful share of inference off the cloud, trimming datacenter accelerator demand growth and pressuring the capex narrative.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Capable on-device models shift a meaningful share of inference off the cloud, trimming datacenter accelerator demand growth and pressuring the capex narrative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.65–-0.04% · other way +2.22% (n=7) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–+0.61% · other way +2.6% (n=7) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.86–+1.26% · other way +2.97% (n=7) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.09–+0.12% · other way -6.84% (n=7) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.37–+0.57% · other way +0.34% (n=7) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.63–+1.06% · other way -5.67% (n=7) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -9.77–+1.48% · other way -5.48% (n=7) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+0.09% · other way +0.88% (n=7) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.17–+3.06% · other way +4.53% (n=7) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.08–+6.47% · other way +30.97% (n=7) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.22–+1.94% · other way -1.61% (n=7) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.17% · other way +0.28% (n=7) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.64–+0.78% · other way -4.62% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -5.5% | 76% | 36 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.2% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.3% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.9% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |