What if a national gas-appliance ban overloads winter peak demand?
A national gas-appliance ban forcing heat-pump electrification raises winter peak power demand, but mapping it to higher NG/fertilizer and a weaker euro is contradictory: banning gas burn cuts residential gas demand even as it lifts power load. Cleaner read is higher winter electricity prices and copper/grid demand, not a gas-led inflation pulse. Rhymes with EU heat-pump push post-2022. Forward angle: the swing is to power, not gas, so trade utilities and grid metals, not TTF.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A national gas-appliance ban forces rapid heat-pump electrification, overloading winter peak demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.