What if a drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture and spikes food inflation?
A drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture across an emerging economy, spiking food inflation and forcing fiscal relief that strains the sovereign, an IAIS gap theme.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture across an emerging economy, spiking food inflation and forcing fiscal relief that strains the sovereign, an IAIS gap theme. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.