What if a drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture and spikes food inflation?
A drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture across an emerging economy, spiking food inflation and forcing fiscal relief that strains the sovereign, an IAIS gap theme.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A drought-flood cycle devastates uninsured smallholder agriculture across an emerging economy, spiking food inflation and forcing fiscal relief that strains the sovereign, an IAIS gap theme. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.38–+1.89% · other way -3.04% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.5–+0.79% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.82–-0.04% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.28–+0.27% · other way -0.77% (n=12) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.03% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.04% · other way -0.41% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+1.21% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.98–+1.59% · other way +17.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.06% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.97–+0.67% · other way +30.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.15% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.9% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 36 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +1bp | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +6.0% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 44% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |