What if EM central banks out-cut the Fed, thinning the carry cushion?
EMs ease faster than the Fed to support growth, narrowing rate differentials and eroding the carry buffer that had sustained inflows, leaving currencies more exposed.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. EMs ease faster than the Fed to support growth, narrowing rate differentials and eroding the carry buffer that had sustained inflows, leaving currencies more exposed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.