What if EM central banks out-cut the Fed, thinning the carry cushion?
EMs ease faster than the Fed to support growth, narrowing rate differentials and eroding the carry buffer that had sustained inflows, leaving currencies more exposed.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. EMs ease faster than the Fed to support growth, narrowing rate differentials and eroding the carry buffer that had sustained inflows, leaving currencies more exposed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.11–+1.63% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–+0.04% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.69–+0.82% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.62–+0.03% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.52–+1.89% · other way +3.6% (n=11) |
| 7 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.41% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.96–+0.21% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.64–+0.8% · other way +3.5% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.47–+0.36% · other way +0.71% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -5.12–+1.32% · other way +4.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 32 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -8.4% | 71% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 32 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -6.5% | 67% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 32 | 0.22 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 30 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d 0bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 49% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | · |