What if a gas and oil price spike drives ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer costs sharply higher?
A gas-and-oil price spike lifts ammonia and nitrogen-fertilizer costs, raising food-production costs in the energy-to-food channel NGFS and the FAO flag for inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A gas-and-oil price spike lifts ammonia and nitrogen-fertilizer costs, raising food-production costs in the energy-to-food channel NGFS and the FAO flag for inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.14–+1.21% · other way +5.38% (n=9) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.46–+0.35% · other way -4.13% (n=9) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.23–+0.38% · other way +1.88% (n=9) |
| 4 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.1–-0.05% · other way -1.29% (n=8) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.27–+10.63% · other way +4.1% (n=10) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.29–+0.74% · other way +2.13% (n=9) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.67–+5.34% · other way +3.0% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.1% | 71% | 34 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 34 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 34 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.3% | 43% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 27 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 39% | 32 | 0.00 | · |